Update, 6:00 PM Eastern: the closing wrap
A day that started with oil headlines ended in a quiet stalemate. Gold closed up about 0.1% near $4,053, after trading a range from roughly $4,023 to $4,082, and silver kept its gains, finishing about 1% higher near $58 after touching $58.96 at midday. The white metals went the other way: platinum ended down about 0.5% near $1,592 and palladium eased about 0.8% to around $1,246, both nursing morning lows.
The arc of the session was a tug of war. Brent crude above $100 after the Red Sea tanker attacks stirred inflation worries, which cuts both ways for metals: safe-haven interest on one side, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar on the other. A strong jobless claims report added to the rate pressure, and futures markets now lean toward a higher Fed target rate by September. That gold held its ground anyway, and silver actually advanced, says something about the steady bid underneath this market. For holders of plain 1-ounce bullion, the metal value of a gold ounce ended a few dollars higher and a silver ounce added roughly 55 cents; our methodology page explains how we compute that floor from the spot archive.
Tomorrow brings no major U.S. data releases, so the weekend watch is next Wednesday’s Fed decision and any fresh developments in the Red Sea.
Update, 5:00 PM Eastern
The afternoon took some shine off the morning’s move. Gold, which touched $4,082 before lunch, has drifted back to roughly where it started, near $4,053, now up only about 0.1% on the day. Silver has held its gains better: it eased from its $58.96 high but still sits near $58.12, up close to 1%. Platinum slipped about 0.5% to around $1,592, and palladium is off roughly 0.8% near $1,246.
The pullback tracks the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 4.70% and, futures markets now put September rate-hike odds near 80%, up sharply on the day, even as most observers still expect the Fed to hold at next week’s meeting. Higher yields and a firmer dollar are the familiar headwinds, while Brent crude holding above $100 keeps the inflation question, and the safe-haven bid, alive underneath. Silver’s industrial demand story continues to give it a floor of its own. The full day’s price paths are on our live charts.
Update, 1:00 PM Eastern
The morning rebound has held and broadened. Gold pushed as high as $4,082 in late morning trade and sits near $4,068, up about 0.5% on the day, while silver remains the leader: it touched $58.96 and is holding around $58.60, a gain of roughly 1.8%. The gold to silver ratio has slipped to about 69, a sign buyers keep favoring the white metal. For holders of Morgan and Peace dollars, that means the metal floor under classic 90% silver keeps firming as the day goes on.
The backdrop hasn’t changed so much as sharpened. Jobless claims came in strong on Thursday, and market odds of a Fed hold next week have slipped to about 64% from 87% a week ago, which keeps traders cautious even as they buy the dip. The dollar is steady near 101.4 and oil remains above $97, so the inflation worry that helped lift metals this morning is still in place. Platinum and palladium sit slightly lower, near $1,597 and $1,252, quiet by comparison.
Silver is doing the talking this morning. The gray metal climbed to $58.62 an ounce overnight, up about 1.2% on the day, while gold spent the early hours wrestling with $100 oil and a firmer dollar before steadying just above $4,050. Attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea sent Brent crude through the $100 mark for the first time since May, and that single fact is shaping nearly everything else on the board.
The numbers
- Gold: up about 0.1% so far today, touching $4,063.67 before easing to around $4,053, after an overnight dip to $4,022.
- Silver: up about 1.2%, reaching $58.62 after opening near $57.57.
- Platinum: down about 0.2% at roughly $1,597, after slipping as low as $1,572.
- Palladium: essentially flat near $1,256, recovering from an early dip toward $1,233.
The gold-silver ratio sits near 69.6, down from around 70.7 yesterday.
What happened
The morning’s crosscurrents come amid the tanker attacks off Saudi Arabia, which pushed Brent above $100 and revived inflation worries. For gold, that cuts both ways: the geopolitical scare argues for safe-haven buying, but dearer oil feeds inflation expectations, and traders now put the odds of a September Fed rate hike near 80%, up from 68%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.70%, which tends to dull the appeal of metal that pays no interest.
Silver moved with less hesitation amid the same news, helped by its industrial side. Solar and electronics demand gives it a second engine that gold lacks, and the metal has been steadily narrowing the ratio this week.
What it means for American gold
For holders of an American Gold Eagle, the metal value is close to where it stood yesterday, up perhaps $5 an ounce for plain 1-ounce bullion. The Silver Eagle crowd has more to smile about: roughly 70 cents an ounce added to the metal floor so far today. Pre-1933 pieces such as the Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle, with its 0.9675 ounces of gold, track the spot move proportionally on the melt side, though proof, graded, and collector coins march to a slower drummer set by collector demand, not the morning’s tape. Our live charts follow the spot picture minute by minute, and the full coin catalog shows how each series is valued.
What we’re watching
U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI figures land today, and the July 28-29 FOMC meeting is now the week’s main event: no rate change is expected, but the tone on inflation could firm up or soften those September hike odds.
Sources
- Oil prices leap to $100 a barrel after attacks in Red Sea (Washington Post)
- Brent crude crosses $100 after tankers reportedly struck off Saudi Arabia (CNBC)
- Gold defends $4,000 as Brent hits $100 and September hike odds jump to 80% (FX Leaders)
- Silver price today: silver rises on July 24 (FXStreet)
Price figures are from FMV Gold’s own minute-by-minute spot archive (UTC trading day). The latest updates appear at the top of this page as the day develops.
