For a few hours on Wednesday, the bond market looked like it might take gold down with it. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed past 5.35%, a level last seen in 2002, the Federal Reserve’s minutes confirmed a committee united behind September’s rate hike, and gold slid to $4,070.41, its low for the week. Then the selling ran out of room. A strong reception for this week’s government debt auctions pulled yields back, Washington said it was talking with Tehran, and early Friday gold was trading above $4,200 for the first time in the week. It finished at $4,194.61, up 1.2% on the week, which is a better result than Wednesday had any right to promise.
The week in numbers
- Gold: up 1.23%, from $4,143.57 to $4,194.61. Week’s high $4,202.64 (Friday, Oct. 9); low $4,070.41 (Wednesday, Oct. 7).
- Silver: up 0.66%, from $60.43 to $60.83. Week’s high $61.96 (Monday, Oct. 5); low $58.54 (Thursday, Oct. 8).
- Platinum: down 0.80%, from $1,702.60 to $1,689.00. Week’s high $1,738.39 (Monday, Oct. 5); low $1,615.36 (Wednesday, Oct. 7).
- Palladium: down 1.63%, from $1,171.35 to $1,152.30. Week’s high $1,189.86 (Monday, Oct. 5); low $1,117.77 (Wednesday, Oct. 7).
The stories that moved the market
The week opened on the previous Friday’s news. September’s payroll report had come in well short of forecasts, and by Monday morning traders had sharply cut their bets on another Fed hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting. CME FedWatch showed the odds of a hold jumping to roughly 80% from about 29% a week earlier. Gold firmed amid that repricing, and silver touched $61.96 on Monday, which turned out to be its best moment of the week.
Wednesday was the hard day. Long-dated Treasury yields had been climbing for weeks on energy-driven inflation, heavy federal borrowing and a broad selloff in government bonds overseas, and the 10-year finally broke above 5.35% ahead of a $39 billion auction. That afternoon the Fed released minutes from its Sept. 16 meeting, when it lifted its benchmark range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%. The minutes showed most officials expected another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. None of that was a surprise, but it arrived on a day when bonds were already under pressure, and all four metals fell together. Platinum lost more than 4% at its worst, and palladium printed its lowest daily close in more than a year in our archive.
The turn came Thursday. Demand at the Treasury auctions proved sturdier than feared, yields eased off their highs and the dollar gave back some ground. President Trump also posted that the U.S. was having “productive discussions” with Iran and would not attack before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Brent crude slipped toward $103 a barrel on the news, though it stayed above $100. Silver actually made its weekly low early Thursday before joining the recovery.
Friday belonged to the rebound. With yields softer and the dollar pulling back, gold climbed through $4,200 in early European trading and closed near the top of its range. Silver gained more than 2% on the day. It’s worth noting the mixed message underneath: easing Iran tensions trim some of gold’s safe-haven bid, while lower yields help it, and this week the rates story clearly mattered more.
What it means for American gold
For holders of the American Gold Eagle, the week added roughly $51 to the metal value of each plain one-ounce bullion coin, measured from last Friday’s spot to this Friday’s. That’s the floor under the coin, the value of the gold itself, not what any particular coin will bring. The American Silver Eagle picked up about 40 cents of metal value per ounce, a small gain after a week that had it down more than 3% at Thursday’s low.
Older American gold moved in the same direction, scaled to its gold content. A Saint-Gaudens double eagle carries 0.9675 troy ounce, so its metal floor rose a bit less than a full ounce’s worth. Augustus Saint-Gaudens designed that coin at Theodore Roosevelt’s urging, and it was first struck in 1907; collectors still regard it as one of the handsomest coins the Mint ever produced. Morgan dollars, at 0.7734 troy ounce of silver each, saw their melt floor move only by pennies.
Keep in mind that proof, graded, commemorative and pre-1933 coins trade on collector demand above melt, and those premiums move on their own, slower schedule. A week like this one shifts the floor; it rarely changes what a scarce date or a high grade is worth to a collector. Our valuation method explains how we separate the two, and the live price charts show the week’s swings in detail.
Where this leaves the market
Gold remains well below its record. Our daily archive puts the all-time high at $5,414.49 on Jan. 28, 2026, and Friday’s close sits 22.5% under it, a little closer than the 23.5% gap at the start of the week. Gold is down 2.9% for the year, an improvement from 4.0% down a week ago. It also trades about 7.4% below its 200-day average of roughly $4,530, still on the wrong side of that line but nearer to it than the 8.7% gap of last Friday.
Silver’s position is weaker. It ended 47.8% below its own Jan. 28 record of $116.61 and is down 15.0% year to date, about 16% beneath its 200-day average. Because gold outgained silver over the full week, the gold-silver ratio drifted up slightly, from 68.6 to 69.0, even though silver had the stronger Friday. Platinum is down about 18% for the year and palladium about 29%.
The week ahead
- Monday, Oct. 12: Columbus Day. U.S. bond markets are closed; stock exchanges are open.
- Wednesday, Oct. 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: The September Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With the Fed weighing a second hike, this is the release most likely to move yields, and gold with them.
- Looking further out: The Fed’s next policy meeting is Oct. 27-28, and the midterm elections are Nov. 3.
Sources
- September FOMC Minutes Back Hawkish Stance, But October Hopes Fade (Babypips)
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2002 (Forbes)
- Oil falls to $103 as Trump says US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections (Yahoo Finance)
- Gold prices climbing as interest rate expectations shift, Oct. 5 (Yahoo Finance)
- Gold Fund Gains 1.6% as Treasury Yields Ease (The Rio Times)
- CPI Release Calendar: Next Report October 14, 2026 (CPI Chart)
Price figures are from FMV Gold’s own minute-by-minute spot archive (UTC trading days).
